From One Launchpad to the Next:
The Global Race for Reusability
· By Heaven Sullivan ·
Unprecedented numbers of satellites and spacecraft are due to be launched in the next ten years. Behind this effort is a global space industry striving to attain enhanced connectivity on Earth and renewed exploration of our solar system. Their success will depend heavily on the proliferation of low-cost reusable rockets, a capability first demonstrated by SpaceX.
When the company entered the market in 2002, the promise of low-cost launches achieved through reusable rockets seemed far-fetched. Access to space was expensive and hard, and reserved mostly for government missions. Fifteen years later, SpaceX successfully launched and recovered its legendary Falcon 9 rocket. It became the world’s first orbital-class reusable rocket, offering the additional benefit of reducing launch costs by up to 70%. These savings are the main reason for a subsequent jump in the annual number of objects placed in orbit, from 456 in 2017 to 2,849 in 2024. Falcon 9’s dramatically lower cost unlocked a new age of increased access to space for government and commercial customers, the latter of which now accounts for most satellites in orbit. The low-costs offered by reusability has also led to other global actors developing their own versions of this industry-transforming technology.
China, for example, aims to place nearly 40,000 satellites in orbit over the next decade. But to do so, the country must move beyond its reliance on the single-use Long March rocket family developed by state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC). Long March rockets are versatile in design but expendable, meaning they require new construction for every launch. This makes production time-consuming and resource-intensive, preventing a launch cadence that rivals that of the United States. Beijing’s Qianfan mega-constellation has already faced ongoing delays due to a Long March shortage, and only 90 of Qianfan’s planned 648 satellites are expected to be in orbit by the end 2025. To overcome this problem, CACS and private Chinese companies are aggressively pursuing reusable rocket technology. One such firm is Landspace, which plans to debut its orbital-class reusable Zhuque-3 rocket later this year. Success for Landspace, or its peer Chinese companies, will be a decisive factor in China’s ability to catch up with SpaceX and deploy mega-constellations.
Europe is also developing reusable rockets, in part to reduce reliance on external providers. The 2020 retirement of the continent’s premier Ariane 5 rocket, the frequent setbacks in developing its successor, and chronic underinvestment in alternatives have left Europe dependent on foreign launch providers. Europe was consequently behind only 1% of global launches in 2023, despite a strong political push and having the technical know-how to bolster the European presence in space.
To reverse the trend, European governments are financing a new generation of commercial startups. Germany has already committed €95 million ($110 million) to support domestic launch companies selected by the European Space Agency to develop reusable rockets. Maiaspace, a subsidiary of France’s ArianeGroup, is also expected to produce a partially reusable rocket by 2026. Until then, Europe will remain dependent on foreign launch providers.
The Next Stage
As the rest of the world races to catch up with Falcon 9, American firms are already driving another revolution with reusable heavy-launch vehicles. Unlike orbital-class rockets that mainly carry satellites, heavy launchers will carry large spacecraft or even entire space stations into orbit. Blue Origin aims to do this with its partially reusable New Glenn vehicle, while SpaceX is nearing success with Starship, which could be the first fully reusable and refuellable heavy launcher.
It is difficult to predict how these rockets will transform the industry. Falcon 9 was immediately useful for some launch providers, but it took others several years to harness the advantages of reusability. Even today, Falcon 9 often operates well below its capacity. A similar period of adjustment is likely for New Glenn and Starship, and their potential may take years to realize. Still, they promise a new era of routine celestial exploration to the Moon and Mars.
As reusable rockets proliferate and launch costs continue to fall, the number of objects in orbit will rise further. So, too, will the risk of congestion and collision, which has been increasing for years. Only a patchwork of weak, voluntary measures currently prevents catastrophes among spacefaring nations. A collision between satellites could render Low Earth Orbit unsafe and inflame geopolitical tensions on Earth.
Access to orbital space is limited, and the United States and China are likely to continue accelerating launch activity to secure strategic advantage. Meanwhile, Europe will compete for its own orbital presence and interests. Managing this increasingly congested and contested environment requires regulatory frameworks and coordination mechanisms that do not yet exist. Without them, the promise of cheaper access to space may become a driver of instability and strategic tension rather than prosperity.